####018005843####
FZAK80 PAFC 270043

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

343 PM AKST Friday 26 January 2024





FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 31 January 2024





ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to Moderate





SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the central and northern 

Bering Sea with low pressure persisting over the high Arctic, 

extending into the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The main storm track 

will remain from the northeast Pacific Ocean into the Gulf of Alaska.





The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 35’N 159 8’W 

to 57 58’N 166 8’W to 59 54’N 173 13’W to 61 44’N 176 53’W and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. 





From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 50 nm west of Pilot Point to 110 nm south of 

Cape Mendenhall to 35 nm south of Saint Matthew Island to 190 nm 

southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge 

is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-





PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-





Ice covered.





FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high.  West winds will transition to south winds 

briefly on Saturday, then to east winds Sunday and Monday. Sea ice 

movement will shift with the changing wind direction and will pick 

up in speed as the winds align with the Beaufort gyre current. 





-CHUKCHI SEA-





PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-





Ice covered.





PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-





FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. West to southwest winds will prevail across the 

area through Saturday, then shift to northerly through Wednesday. 

Temperatures will continue to be conducive to sea ice growth with 

general movement toward the coast. 





-BERING SEA-





PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-





Ice covered.





PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-PKZ851-

Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-





FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



Generally northeasterly winds will continue through the period. 

However a small and compact but strong low pressure system will 

traverse the ice edge and move toward the Pribilof Islands Saturday 

into Sunday. Winds will likely be in the gale-force range and 

advance small portions of the ice edge quickly. Model guidance 

generally struggles with this type of system. Uncertainty is higher 

than normal.



Otherwise...Northeast winds will persist through at least Tuesday. 

Cold air in place along with the northeasterly winds will keep the 

ice pack drifting southwest. Expect the ice edge to move southwest 

25 to 35 nm through Wednesday. Polynyas will continue to form off 

southwest-facing coastlines, but will quickly fill in with new ice. 





-COOK INLET-





PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-





The main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to north of 

Ninilchik. 





FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Light norhterly winds and an arctic air mass will remain in 

place through the weekend. Expect continued growth and southerly 

movement of the ice edge 5 to 10 nm. Sea surface temperatures in the 

southern Inlet are not supportive of new ice growth, but ice from 

the northern Inlet could continue to move southward. A brief period 

of moderating temperatures is possible as a system approaches from 

the Gulf of Alaska on Monday, however, uncertainty is high with this 

system. There is higher confidence in arctic air returning behind 

that system despite the uncertainty in storm track. 





&&





Lawson