####018005760####
FZAK80 PAFC 292346

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

245 PM AKST Monday 29 January 2024





FORECAST VALID...Saturday 3 February 2024





ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate





SYNOPSIS...A weak trough of low pressure moves across the high 

arctic this week. Low pressure will develop over the eastern Bering 

Sea early in the week and strengthen as it transits into the central 

Bering Sea before merging with a North Pacific low by the weekend.





he main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 78’N 160 32’W 

to 58 10’N 162 46’W to 59 8’N 166 03’W to 59 89’N 172 85’W to 61 

75’N 176 00’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open 

water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 90 nm west of Pilot Point to 130 nm south of 

Cape Mendenhall to 30 nm south of Saint Matthew Island to 186 nm 

southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge 

is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-





PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-





Ice covered.





FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate.  East winds will prevail over the Beaufort 

Sea through midweek before becoming light and variable through 

Saturday.  Sea ice movement will move west Tuesday and Wednesday and 

then will move with tides and currents through Saturday. 





-CHUKCHI SEA-





PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-





Ice covered.





PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-





FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. North winds will prevail across the area 

into Tuesday then become light and variable through Saturday. 

Temperatures will continue to be conducive to sea ice growth with 

general movement toward the south and west. 





-BERING SEA-





PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-





Ice covered.





PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-PKZ851-

Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-





FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



Across the northern Bering Sea north of Saint Matthew Island, north 

to northeast winds will prevail though midweek ahead of a large area 

of low pressure forecast to develop in the eastern Bering Sea by the 

weekend.  As this low strengthens, winds across the Bering Sea will 

increase with cold air in place over the region continuing to 

enhance ice growth.  Strong gale force winds expected by the weekend 

could move the ice pack up to 20 to 30 nm southwest through 

Saturday.  Polynyas could form off southwest-facing coastlines, but 

will quickly fill in with new ice.





Across the southern Bering Sea south of Saint Matthew Island, north 

to northeast winds will shift to the east by midweek ahead of a low 

pressure system developing in the east Bering Sea.  This system will 

bring north to northwest winds along the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol 

Bay, shifting to the east to southeast and increasing by the 

weekend.  The strong winds may move the ice edge to the north as the 

system transits the Bering Sea this weekend. 





-COOK INLET-





PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-





The main ice edge extends from near Kamishak Bay to near Anchor 

Point. 





FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate.. South winds shift to light northerly by midweek as an 

arctic air mass will likely remain in place into the weekend. Expect 

continued growth and southerly movement of the ice edge 5 to 10 nm 

through Saturday.



&&



Baker