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FZAK80 PAFC 022351

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

250 PM AKST Friday 2 February 2024





FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 7 February 2024





ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate





SYNOPSIS...High pressure stretches from the Chukchi and Beaufort 

Seas over the mainland while several low pressure systems move into 

the Bering Sea.



The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 23N 159 8’W to 

57 23’N 164 40’W to 59 51’N 174 2’W to 61 21’N 176 55’W and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.  



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 50 nm west of Pilot Point to 110 nm southwest of 

Cape Newenham to 45 nm south of Saint Matthew Island to 215 nm 

southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge 

is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-





PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-





Ice covered.





FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Generally light winds will keep ice moving from 

east to west with the currents of the Beaufort Gyre.





-CHUKCHI SEA-





PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-





Ice covered.





PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-





FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light wind will keep ice moving with tides and 

currents through Monday. Arctic air remaining in place will continue 

ice growth. 





-BERING SEA-





PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.





PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-







FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



For Bristol Bay...predominately easterly and southerly winds will 

push ice away from the Alaska Peninsula to melt in warmer waters 

while ice will be compacted against the coast from Naknek through 

Cape Newenham. Expect the ice edge to retreat 20 to 40 nm through 

Wednesday.



East of Saint Matthew Island...a series of lows and fronts will 

bring easterly and southerly winds to retreat the ice edge 40 to 50 

nm through Wednesday.



From Saint Matthew Island westward easterly and northerly winds will 

slightly advance the ice edge over the weekend, 10 to 20 nm. There 

is a greater chance in advancement as a stronger systems enters the 

Bering Sea Monday through Wednesday. Expect greater advance with 

these systems, another 20 to 30 nm additional during this time 

period. 





-COOK INLET-





PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-





The main ice edge extends from near Kamishak Bay to near Anchor 

Point. 





FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. 



Several fronts and low pressure systems will move into the Gulf of 

Alaska, which will bring a warmer air mass overhead. Expect ice 

growth to stall, however, light northerly winds will keep the ice 

edge in relatively the same place with Cook Inlet tides being the 

primary mover of ice in the short term. 





&&



Lawson