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FZAK80 PAFC 052257

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

156 PM AKST Monday 5 February 2024





FORECAST VALID...Saturday 10 February 2024





ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High





SYNOPSIS...High pressure stretches from the Chukchi and Beaufort 

Seas over the mainland while several strong low pressure systems 

move into the Bering Sea from the north Pacific Ocean.



The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 26N 159 11’W 

to 58 24’N 166 37’W to 59 59’N 174 6’W to 61 14’N 177 51’W and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 35 nm northwest of Port Heiden to 80 nm south of 

Cape Mendenhall to 38 nm south of Saint Matthew Island to 225 nm 

southwest of Gambell.



-BEAUFORT SEA-





PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-





Ice covered.





FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Generally light winds will keep ice moving from 

east to west with the currents of the Beaufort Gyre.





-CHUKCHI SEA-





PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-





Ice covered.





PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-





FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Easterly winds will affect Kotzebue Sound and 

the southern Chukchi Sea which will aid in unlocking the pack ice in 

the area from the stationary and compact state it has been in. 





-BERING SEA-





PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.





PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-







FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. 





East of Saint Matthew Island...Two low pressure systems will bring 

southerly winds to the ice edge, melting ice along the Alaska 

Peninsula and retreating the ice edge. A third system will bring 

easterly winds followed by more southerlies to the area. Expect the 

ice edge to retreat 40 to 60 nm through Saturday. 



From Saint Matthew Island westward...continued northerly winds will 

rapidly advance the ice edge 40 to 60 nm through Saturday. Expect 

strips of ice to form along the edge and move southward. 







-COOK INLET-





PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-





The main ice edge extends from near Kamishak Bay to near Anchor 

Point. 





FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. 



Several fronts and low pressure systems will move into the Gulf of 

Alaska, one weaker by mid-week and another strong from late in the 

week. Expect ice growth to stall, however, northerly winds 

especially toward the end of the week will advance the ice edge to 

the south 10 to 20 nm. Overall air temperatures will moderate and be 

in the teens and 20s as opposed to below zero and single digits 

which will slow or even stop ice growth. 











&&



Lawson