####018006147#### FZAK80 PAFC 100010 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 309 PM AKST Friday 9 February 2024 FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 14 February 2024 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will move north across the western Alaska mainland through Sunday, then into the Chukchi Sea Monday. Another low will move north across the central Bering Sea Monday through Wednesday. The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 50’N 158 23’W to 58 52’N 167 29’W to 59 50’N 173 14’W to 60 44’N 176 54’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 35 nm northwest of Pilot Point to 80 nm south of Cape Mohican to 40 nm south of Saint Matthew Island to 230 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Winds will generally be out of the north and through Sunday, then out of the east Monday through Wednesday. As the winds shift to easterly, the ice pack will move west. Movement will be enhanced by the Beaufort gyre current. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- Ice covered. PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. North to northeast winds will prevail across the area through Saturday, then winds will be variable as the low moves through the region Sunday through early Monday. Much of the eastern Chukchi Sea will see southerly winds Monday through Wednesday, though there will likely be a brief period of northerly winds Tuesday. Polynyas are expected to form off north-facing coastlines and some ice will move out of Kotzebue Sound through Wednesday. -BERING SEA- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- Ice covered. PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm- PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm- PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. West of St. Paul Island, northerly winds will persist through Tuesday, allowing the ice pack to continue to advance southward 20 to 40 nm during that time. Winds may become southerly Wednesday, which could result in some slight retreat of the ice pack. East of St. Paul Island, winds will shift back to westerly to southerly Saturday. The generally southerly winds will persist through Wednesday. Overall, the ice edge in the eastern Bering Sea is expected to retreat 40 to 50 nm. Polynyas will form and expand off north-facing coastlines and shorefast ice may break off in some places that are not fast to the ocean bottom. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- Ice covered. PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- PKZ738-Shelikof Strait- PKZ741-Kachemak Bay- PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- The main ice edge extends from near Kamishak Bay to near Anchor Point. There is also sea ice within Kachemak Bay. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Air temperatures will continue to be in the upper 20s to mid- 30s through Wednesday. After a brief period of southerly winds Saturday especially across the lower inlet, winds will generally be northerly. The moderate air temperatures will cause some of the newest sea ice to melt and slow or stop the growth of the larger ice floes from Kalgin Island north. Overall, expect the ice edge to retreat less than 10 nm within the west side of the inlet and up to 20 nm within the east side of the inlet. Sea ice within Kachemak Bay will gradually melt as temperatures remain mild through Wednesday. Expect the local tides and currents to move the ice quite a bit within the bay as it melts. && Schreck