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FZAK80 PAFC 130021

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

321 PM AKST Monday 12 February 2024



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 17 February 2024



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high



SYNOPSIS...A series of lows will move north through the Bering Sea 

through Saturday. High pressure will build over the Chukchi and 

Beaufort Seas Friday and Saturday.



The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 57’N 157 58’W 

to 58 35’N 166 57’W to 60N 171 25’W to 59 48’N 173 43’W to 64 43’N 

177 12’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 25 nm north-northwest of Pilot Point to 115 nm 

south of Mekoryuk to 160 nm southwest of Mekoryuk to 245 nm south of 

Gambell to 230 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian 

waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high.  Winds will be easterly through Tuesday, then 

becoming southerly Wednesday, westerly late Thursday, then northerly 

Friday and Saturday. Expect the ice pack to move with these wind 

directions overall. A polynya will likely form beyond the shorefast 

ice Wednesday during the period of southerly winds, but it will 

quickly re-freeze. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. North to northeast winds will become southerly 

late Tuesday through Wednesday, then gradually become northerly to 

northeasterly again Thursday though Saturday. Polynyas are expected 

to form off north-facing coastlines and some ice will move out of 

Kotzebue Sound through Wednesday, then expect those polynyas to 

close off again as winds become northerly Thursday through Saturday.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is low. As the lows move north through the Bering Sea, winds will be 

quite variable through the forecast period. With such an active 

weather pattern, sea ice in the Bering Sea will be mobile and have 

periods of significant advance and retreat during this time. Please 

keep an eye on the marine weather forecast for your area of interest 

for details. The ice edge is expected to advance 30 to 40 nm from 

St. Matthew Island west through Saturday, and retreat 30 to 40 nm 

east of St. Matthew Island.



For those interacting with shorefast ice, sections of the ice may 

break away during times when winds are blowing from land to sea. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Kenai. There is 

also sea ice within Kachemak Bay. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Winds will be easterly through Tuesday, then become northerly 

through Saturday. Air temperatures will continue to be in the 20s to 

mid-30s through Saturday. The moderate air temperatures will cause 

some of the newest sea ice to melt and slow or stop the growth of 

the larger ice floes from Kalgin Island north. Overall, expect the 

ice edge to retreat up to 20 nm through Saturday. 



The remaining sea ice within Kachemak Bay is expected to completely 

melt by Saturday. 



&&



Schreck