####018005094#### FZUS81 KCLE 142148 ICELIO Great Lakes Ice Outlook National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 448 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024 Active watches...warnings...and advisories on the Great Lakes can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/greatlakes/ 5 Day Ice Discussion... El Nino winter continuing with overall milder than normal conditions for the region, providing weather that is not supportive of any consistent ice formation. However, winter is not quite finished yet, and the next 5 days will get into a colder airmass over the Great Lakes. Expecting significant cold air advection in the wake of a deepening low pressure system that will track from the Great Lakes to the New England coast. The northern Great Lakes will see temperatures below freezing for the end of the week through the weekend while the southern Great Lakes will continue to follow a pattern of above freezing during the day and below freezing at night, with the exception of Saturday where it should below freezing everywhere during the daytime hours. Cumulative freezing degree days continues to be well below normal for the entire Great Lakes region. Ice remains scarce across the lakes, well below normal ice coverage for mid February. Total ice coverage is below 3 percent at this point, with even Saginaw Bay, Green Bay and the Straits of Mackinac showing significant areas of open water. The St Mary's river also has observed open water despite some fastened ice to the shores per the US National Ice Center. Some moderate ice growth is possible during this period of sustained cold weather for places like, but not limited to, Whitefish Bay and the St Mary's River and back into some of the protected bays and inlets of the northern Great Lakes. The Great Lakes ice analysis products can be found at: http://usicecenter.gov/Products/GreatLakesHome and http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#currentconditions MAX WIND (KNOTS) AT EACH SITE FOR THE 12 HOUR FCST PERIOD Location Tonight Thu Thu Night Fri Fri Night West Superior 310/19 310/22 320/15 310/19 280/20 Mid Superior 320/18 340/26 340/20 340/17 270/17 East Superior 320/17 330/29 340/21 330/19 270/17 North Michigan 210/17 310/26 320/20 320/16 310/19 South Michigan 310/27 320/28 330/18 320/23 310/23 North Huron 190/17 310/31 310/29 310/19 320/17 Mid Huron 170/16 300/29 300/26 300/13 310/19 South Huron 150/20 300/30 300/27 300/16 310/19 West Erie 170/22 270/30 300/20 290/14 290/18 East Erie 160/14 270/35 280/32 270/17 280/18 Central Ontario 320/12 280/36 290/34 290/24 300/15 A full graphical forecast of wind on the Great Lakes can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/greatlakes/ Temperature Forecasts for Selected Cities Location 02/15 02/16 02/17 02/18 02/19 02/20 Duluth 19 27 10 19 9 29 17 29 15 33 18 31 Marquette 28 30 20 22 12 25 19 25 16 31 22 31 GreenBay 31 35 19 27 14 27 21 33 19 37 25 36 Milwaukee 35 36 25 30 17 28 26 35 25 38 31 39 Chicago 36 39 28 33 21 30 27 38 28 41 33 43 Muskegon 32 36 25 30 20 30 26 34 24 37 29 39 Alpena 29 33 22 27 14 25 19 30 17 32 22 33 Detroit 29 43 25 34 22 30 23 37 24 39 30 43 Toledo 29 45 27 34 23 30 23 38 24 42 31 45 Cleveland 28 47 29 34 25 31 25 39 27 40 33 45 Buffalo 22 41 27 33 22 28 22 34 22 35 24 39 A full graphical forecast of the Great Lakes forecast temperatures can be found at http://www.weather.gov/greatlakes/ FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS COMPARED TO NORMAL CALCULATED ON Wed Feb 14: LOCATION DATE NORMAL CURRENT ---------------------------------------- DULUTH, MN FEB 13 1447 621 MARQUETTE, MI FEB 13 1213 502 SAU_S_MAR, MI FEB 13 963 321 GREENBAY, WI FEB 13 826 192 MILWAUKEE, WI FEB 13 423 75 CHICAGO, IL FEB 13 342 84 MUSKEGON, MI FEB 13 270 0 ALPENA, MI FEB 13 702 173 DETROIT, MI FEB 13 315 62 TOLEDO, OH FEB 13 208 3 CLEVELAND, OH FEB 13 118 0 BUFFALO, NY FEB 13 349 28 NORMAL TEMPS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES FOR Wed Feb 14 LOCATION HIGH LOW ---------------------------------------------- DULUTH,MN 25 6 MARQUETTE,MI 26 10 GREENBAY,WI 30 13 MILWAUKEE,WI 34 20 CHICAGO,IL 36 20 MUSKEGON,MI 33 19 ALPENA,MI 30 11 DETROIT,MI 35 20 TOLEDO,OH 36 20 CLEVELAND,OH 37 22 BUFFALO,NY 34 19 $$