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FPUS74 KEPZ 161609

NOWEPZ



Short Term Forecast

National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM

1009 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024



NMZ401-403>411-414>417-425>429-TXZ418>424-161915-

Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-

Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-

Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-

Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-

Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-

West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-

Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-

East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-

Central Grant County/Silver City Area-

Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-

West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-

East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Southeast Tularosa Basin-

Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-

Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-

Southern Hudspeth Highlands-

Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-

Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-

Including the cities of Cliff, Buckhorn, Gila Hot Springs, 

Mule Creek, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, Lordsburg, 

Red Rock, Virden, Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Cloverdale, 

Deming, Columbus, Hillsboro, Winston, Truth Or Consequences, 

Derry, Spaceport, Garfield, Hatch, Radium Springs, Las Cruces, 

Vado, Sunland Park, Mescalero, Timberon, Mountain Park, 

Cloudcroft, Sunspot, Apache Summit, Mayhill, Pinon, Sacramento, 

Crow Flats, Silver City, Mimbres, Fort Bayard, Lake Roberts, 

Kingston, White Sands National Park, Chaparral, 

White Sands Range Headquarters, Alamogordo, Tularosa, 

Holloman AFB, Orogrande, Downtown El Paso, West El Paso, 

Upper Valley, East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, Fort Bliss, 

Hueco Tanks, Loma Linda, Cornudas, Dell City, Salt Flat, 

Sierra Blanca, Fabens, Fort Hancock, Tornillo, 

and Indian Hot Springs

1009 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024



.NOW...



Highly dynamically forced, low shear, low moisture environment 

today will result in a chaotic and unorganized storm mode this 

afternoon. The primary threats will be strong outflow winds with 

surface gusts up to 60 mph, cloud-to-ground lightning, and small 

hail. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin around noon 

today with coverage mostly east of the Rio Grande. Storms will 

drift eastward at 20-30 mph at the base of this cyclonic flow.



Textbook "Inverted-V" sounding becoming evident at KELP this 

afternoon as surface mixing accelerates. Mesoanalysis shows a 

bull-eye of the strongest DCAPEs (~1100 J/KG) at KELP where the 

combination of warmest temperatures and driest surface dewpoints 

exist. Storms will be very efficient will generating outflow 

boundaries today, possibly extending well away from any 

precipitation centers.



Surface dewpoints are slightly more favorable across Sierra and 

Otero Counties, reaching the lower 40s. It's clear that 

thunderstorm activity today will be a low-precipitation event with

only a few areas directly under the stronger storm cores 

receiving brief periods of heavy rainfall. Coverage will be 

spotty, with approximately 30-50% of Otero/Sierra/Hudspeth 

Counties getting measurable rain and even less coverage for El 

Paso/Dona Ana Counties and southwest New Mexico. With the majority

of moisture above the freezing level today, cloud-precipitation 

processes will produce small hail within thunderstorm updrafts, 

partially or fully melting as it reaches the surface. 



Storm chances will end early this evening as we lose upper level 

support with the progression eastward of the 500 mb low center. 

Lingering showers will be possible overnight, with minimal 

hazards.



$$



Dennhardt