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FXUS01 KWBC 020729

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

328 AM EDT Thu May 02 2024



Valid 12Z Thu May 02 2024 - 12Z Sat May 04 2024



...Severe Thunderstorms and Flash Flooding concerns over portions

of the Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley today...



...Cool and snowy in parts of the Northwest with above average and

potentially record breaking temperatures into the Ohio Valley and

Mid-Atlantic on today...





The main area of concern will be across the Central part of the

CONUS over the next couple of days. Shortwave disturbances

emerging from the base of a mid-level trough anchored over the

northern tier will generate scattered to isolated thunderstorms

across the Plains and Mississippi Valley today. Some storms could

turn severe, particularly over portions of north-central Texas,

where the Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)

of Severe Thunderstorms. Thunderstorms over areas that received

plenty of rain recently may cause additional flash flooding

concerns, which is why there's a targeted Moderate Risk (at least

40%) of Excessive Rainfall over southeastern Texas. The primary

threat of severe weather and excessive rainfall wanes on Friday as

the associated low pressure system and associated storms move into

the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Lower Great Lakes regions. A second

cold front will sweep through the Great Plains on Friday, bringing

another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region.



An upper trough stationed over the Northwest will generate below

average temperatures across the northern tier today and Friday.

This cool airmass will support high elevation snow across the

western mountains, but particularly over the Northern Rockies,

where 6-12 inches of snow are expected by Saturday morning. A new

low pressure system will emerge over the Pacific Northwest on

Friday night, bringing with it enough moisture for low elevation

rain and mountain snow. An upper level ridge downstream of

approaching shortwave impulses will generate well above average

temperatures from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast today and

Friday. Some areas within these regions may tie or break high

temperature records today. There's a Moderate Heat Risk over

portions of the Mid-Atlantic today affecting individuals who are

sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling

and/or adequate hydration. Temperatures will cool down a bit

heading into the weekend after a cold front pushes through.





Kebede





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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