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FXUS01 KWBC 030747

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

347 AM EDT Fri May 03 2024



Valid 12Z Fri May 03 2024 - 12Z Sun May 05 2024



...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the

Western/Central Gulf Coast on Friday and the Southern Plains on

Saturday...



...Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Saturday...



...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of

the Central/Southern Plains...



A front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will

slowly dissipate on Friday while a new front develops over parts

of the Central Plains/Great Basin. Upper-level energy over the

Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and very moist air will

aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over

parts of southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, the WPC has

issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts

of the Western/Central Gulf Coast through Saturday morning.  The

associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash

flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying

areas the most vulnerable.



In addition, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.

 Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe

thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains through

Saturday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms

are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and

a few tornadoes. Further, there will be an additional risk of hail

two inches or greater over the area.



Moreover, the developing front over western Kansas will cause a

second area of severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued

a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of

the Central High Plains through Saturday morning. The hazards

associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe

thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.



Furthermore, on Friday, showers and thunderstorms will develop

along and ahead of the front extending from the Great Lakes to the

Lower Mississippi Valley. The showers and thunderstorms will march

eastward into the Lower Great Lakes, Central Appalachians,

Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.



By Saturday, the new front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes

to the Southern High Plains. Moisture pooling along the boundary

will create showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over central

Texas and parts of southeastern Oklahoma. Therefore, the WPC has

issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts

of the Southern Plains from Saturday into Sunday morning.  The

associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash

flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying

areas the most vulnerable.



Similarly, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.

Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe

thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains from Saturday

into Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these

thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind

gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an

additional risk of hail two inches or greater over the area. The

showers and thunderstorms will also develop along and ahead of the

front from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.



A dissipating front will move over the Appalachians into the

Southeast on Saturday. Rain showers will develop over parts of the

Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, showers and

thunderstorms will extend from parts of the Tennessee Valley to

the Southeast. 



Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will

create light snow over parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern

High Plains on Friday, ending by Friday night. Moreover, a front

over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore over the Pacific

Northwest overnight Friday, moving inland to the Northern

Intermountain Region and Southern California by Sunday morning.



The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest

Coast overnight Friday, expanding into Northern California by

Saturday morning. Light snow will develop over parts of the higher

elevations of the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. As the front

moves inland, rain expands into Southern California on Saturday

afternoon. Heavy snow will develop over parts of the Sierra Nevada

Mountains overnight Saturday into Sunday. By Sunday morning, snow

will move over parts of the Great Basin. 





Ziegenfelder





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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