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FXUS01 KWBC 050802

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

402 AM EDT Sun May 05 2024



Valid 12Z Sun May 05 2024 - 12Z Tue May 07 2024



...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of

the Southern Plains on Sunday and a Slight Risk over the Northern

High Plains and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on

Monday...



...Heavy snow over the southern Cascades, Northern Rockies, and

Uinta Mountains on Sunday and Monday...



...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of

the Central/Southern High Plains on Monday...



A front extending from the Northern Intermountain Region to

Southern California on Sunday will advance eastward to the

Northern/Middle Mississippi Valley and then to the Southern

Plains. At the same time, the associated surface low deepens

significantly by Tuesday.



The system will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts

of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, and Great

Basin, with heavy snow developing over parts of the Southern

Cascades. Scattered rain and higher-elevation snow will also

develop over parts of California. Overnight Sunday, the snow will

expand into the Northern/Central Rockies as light rain develops

over the Northern High Plains.



On Monday, the snow will continue over parts of the Northern

Intermountain Region and Northern/Central Rockies, with heavy snow

developing over parts of the Northern Rockies and Uinta Mountains.



 Moreover, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward

over the Pains Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday. The moisture

will aid in creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain

over parts of eastern Montana. Therefore, the WPC has issued a

Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the

Northern High Plains from Monday into Tuesday morning.  The

associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash

flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying

areas the most vulnerable.



Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will

develop over parts of eastern Kansas/Nebraska and western

Iowa/Missouri as the front moves out of the Rockies onto the

Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of

excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Plains/Middle

Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning.  The

associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash

flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying

areas the most vulnerable.



More significantly, the system will produce showers and severe

thunderstorms as the boundary moves onto the Plains. Therefore,

the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe

thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains from

Monday into Tuesday morning.  The hazards associated with these

thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind

gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the added threat

of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65

knots or greater, and hail two inches or greater over the area.



Meanwhile, another front extending from the Great Lakes to the

Southern Plains will slowly move eastward off the Northeast Coast

on Sunday. At the same time, the western portion returns northward

as a warm front over the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys by

Tuesday. Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream

northward over eastern Texas, producing showers and thunderstorms

with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk

(level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over eastern Texas through

Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous

areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood,

potentially affecting larger rivers.



In addition, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.

 Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe

thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Monday

morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are

frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a

few tornadoes.  Also, showers and thunderstorms will extend from

the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Southeast on Sunday. The

showers and thunderstorms will continue along and near the

boundary from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southward

from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast Monday into

Tuesday morning.





Ziegenfelder





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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