####018004599#### FXUS01 KWBC 061912 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 311 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 00Z Tue May 07 2024 - 00Z Thu May 09 2024 ...The active Plains spring pattern continues across much of the Plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... ...Severe weather threat Monday afternoon into Monday night from the Central to Southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley, spreading into the Ohio Valley Tuesday... ...Heavy rains and flooding possible across portions of the Northern High Plains and eastern portions of the Central to Southern Plains... ...Elevated to Critical Fire weather conditions across the Southern High Plains... ...Late season heavy snows for the Northern Rockies... ...Much below average temperatures expected across the Great Basin, Central to Northern Rockies, while above average temperatures are forecast across much of the Plains to the east coast... There is no let up in sight for the active Spring time weather pattern across large portions of the nation. The next strong frontal boundary is forecast to push into much of the Plains tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity currently beginning to develop across portions of the Central Plains is expected to continue strengthen and expand across portions of the Central to Southern Plains late this afternoon into Monday night and spread eastward into the Lower Missouri Valley by early Tuesday. There is a moderate to high risk of severe weather across portions of the Central to Southern Plains with large hail, high winds and tornadoes possible. Along with the severe weather threat, heavy rains are also likely across eastern portions of the Central to Southern Plains from from the eastern Dakotas, south through southwest Minnesota, much of Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. Across these areas the expected heavy rains may lead to areas of flash and river flooding. Heavy rains and flooding also possible across portions of the Northern High Plains from eastern Montana into far northeast Wyoming. This next batch of heavy rains will be falling well to the north of portions of Texas that have seen very heavy amounts over the past week. The heavy rain, flooding and severe weather threat will be pushing farther to the east during Tuesday with areas from the Ohio Valley, northward into the Great Lakes having the potential for highly impactful weather. This impactful weather will likely continue across the Ohio Valley region on Wednesday and expand into the Tennessee Valley and Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley as addition heavy rains, severe storms and flooding develop ahead of the next strong system to push into the Mississippi Valley by mid week. No precipitation is expected over the next few days across the Southern High Plains. This along with lower relative humidities and windy conditions will support an elevated to critical fire weather threat over the next several days from southeast Colorado, the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region, south through much of New Mexico and far West to Southwest Texas. Red Flag warnings are currently in effect across these area for the extended period of fire weather danger. Late season winter weather will be hanging on over the next two days across portions of the Central to Northern Rockies and Great Basin from central Idaho, western Montana into western Wyoming, northeast Utah and north central Colorado. Winter Storm warnings and winter weather advisories are currently in effect across these areas for the potential of late season heavy snow. Much below average temperatures expected over the next two days across the Great Basin, Central to Northern Rockies with high temperatures 20 to 25 degrees colder than average. In contrast...above average temperatures are expected to stretch across much of the Plains, eastward to the east coast. Record high overnight lows are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday morning from the Southeast, through the Southern Appalachians, Upper Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered record high temperatures are possible by Wednesday and Thursday from far South Texas, across the Gulf Coast and into portions of Florida. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$