####018001250####
FXHW01 KWNH 080712

PMDHI 



Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

311 AM EDT Wed May 08 2024



Valid 00Z Thu May 09 2024 - 00Z Thu May 16 2024



...A wet pattern emerging for Hawaii...



Trade flow into the islands has less support through the rest of

the week with weakening and shift of mid-latitude high pressure

with onset of ample mid-latitude upper troughing/height falls and

lead surface frontal approach. This also prompts a more moist

island trade response/inverted surface troughing. Forecast spread

continues to decrease as guidance continues a trend toward

development of an ampified upper trough/low over the state late

week and weekend that seems reasonable considering amplified

upstream upper ridging. There is then a longer term guidance trend

for upstream digging of amplified kicker/replacement upper trough

energy toward the state early-mid next week to rejuvinate wet

pattern support. A favored composite of decently clustered

guidance solutions bolsters confidence in development of an

emerging wetter pattern for the state with potential for locally

heavier rainfall, with some focus into favored terrain.



Schichtel



$$