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FXCA20 KWBC 091631

PMDCA 



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1230 PM EDT THU MAY 09 2024



FORECAST BULLETIN 09 MAY 2024 AT 1700 UTC:



A LARGE MID-UPPER TROUGH IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THE

INFLUENCE OF A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST

MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA IS LIMITING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS

UPPER TROUGH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE

IS FORECAST TO START MEANDERING EASTWARD LATE DURING THE

WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER

TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY WETTER CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST MEXICO

DEVELOPING DURING THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO PLAY A

ROLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHERN COAHUILA BY FRIDAY

EVENING...TO THEN BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF

BROWNSVILLE BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE

TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.



THE WET SPELL IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK IS

STARTING TO WANE...AS A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS

MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IS

FORECAST TO HOLD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL FAVOR AN ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP-LAYER

INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN

ENHANCING DIURNAL HEATING. IN A 50MM+ PRECIPITABLE WATER

ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY

AND FRIDAY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN INTERIOR

PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WHILE IN EASTERN HISPANIOLA EXPECT

MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN PUERTO

RICO. AMOUNTS DECREASE THEREAFTER.



SEASONALLY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA

AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE KEY ENHANCING FACTORS WILL BE

ACTIVE EASTERLY WAVES...WHICH ARE PROPAGATING ALONG THE NET. THE

BASE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN

INTO NORTHERN VENEZUELA WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOCAL ENHANCEMENT.

ON THURSDAY...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN

COLOMBIA AND SOUTHWEST VENEZUELA AS AN EASTERLY WAVE AND THE NET

INTERACT IN A MOIST POOL OF 60+MM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. ALSO ON

THURSDAY...VENTILATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF A CELL OF THE

SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL FAVOR HIGH ACCUMULATION FROM FRENCH

GUIANA/AMAPA INTO SOUTHEAST VENEZUELA. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125MM

WITH AN EASTERLY COASTAL AREAS DUE TO ITCZ CONVERGENCE AND AN

EASTERLY WAVE...AND MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE 30-60MM/DAY RANGE IN

AREAS WEST. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA

AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...WHERE MAXIMA IS LIKELY TO REACH 40-80MM.

ON SATURDAY...ENHANCED MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC ITCZ

AND INCREASED CYCLONIC VORTICITY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL

LIKELY FAVOR AN INCREASE IN MAXIMA TO 35-70MM. ENHANCED MOISTURE

CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN WEST SURINAME AND

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GUYANA...ALSO AIDED BY AN EASTERLY WAVE.



GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

















































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