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FXUS01 KWBC 101813

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

213 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024



Valid 00Z Sat May 11 2024 - 00Z Mon May 13 2024



...Wet weekend in store for portions of the Central/Southern

Plains and adjacent Rockies...



...A pair of frontal systems will bring shower and storm chances

from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic this weekend...



...Above average temperatures will spread across the West and

north-central U.S. this weekend...



A wet weekend is in store for portions of the Central/Southern

Plains and adjacent Rockies as a cooler, moist airmass has settled

in north of a frontal boundary stalled out just south of the

U.S.-Mexico border. Scattered, lighter showers through Friday

evening/early Saturday will become more widespread and heavier

through the day Saturday, with isolated flash flooding possible.

Higher elevations of the central Rockies will see some snow,

though accumulations should remain much lighter compared to the

past couple of days. Then, on Sunday, the boundary will lift back

northward through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley as a

warm front, bringing deeper moisture, higher instability, and the

potential for more intense downpours. A Slight Risk of Excessive

Rainfall (level 2/5) has been issued for portions of

central/eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley for the

risk of scattered flash flooding, particularly where antecedent

conditions remain wet due to recent heavy rainfall in eastern

Texas. 



To the east, shower and thunderstorm chances will taper off along

the East Coast Friday evening as a cold front pushes offshore,

lingering longest across Florida. Another frontal system dropping

southeast from Canada will bring some scattered showers and

thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes overnight Friday,

then spreading into the Upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians and

Mid-Atlantic during the day Saturday. Storms will diminish

overnight Saturday as this system departs the East Coast as well.

Yet another system is forecast to follow in its wake, bringing

some renewed scattered storm chances to the Great Lakes Sunday.

Other areas of the country should remain mostly dry through the

weekend.



An upper-level ridge building over the West Coast and eastward

into the north-central U.S. is expected to lead to widespread

well-above average temperatures across those regions this weekend.

Forecast highs Saturday from California northward into the Pacific

Northwest will range in the 80s to low 90s. The focus for warmer

temperatures will shift more into the Interior West/Great Basin

Sunday. While not quite as warm, temperatures through the northern

Rockies into the northern Plains will still be well above average,

with highs in the 70s to low 80s expected. These warmer

temperatures will spread into the Midwest by Sunday. In contrast,

cooler, below average temperatures are expected most elsewhere

across the eastern and central U.S. following the frontal passage.

Forecast highs range from the 50s and 60s in New England and the

Mid-Atlantic, the 70s to low 80s across the Southeast, and 60s and

70s into the Central/Southern Plains. Areas of south Texas and

Florida will remain warmer, with 80s and some 90s forecast.



Putnam





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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