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FXUS01 KWBC 111837

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

236 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024



Valid 00Z Sun May 12 2024 - 00Z Tue May 14 2024



...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the

southern High Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley over the next

few days...



...Wet and cool conditions forecast across the Great Lakes,

Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast this weekend...



...Well above average temperatures expected throughout the West

and north-central United States...





After a brief lull, active weather is anticipated to return to the

southern Plains tonight before spreading into the central/western

Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley through early next week. A

closed upper-low over the Southwest and lingering frontal boundary

extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the southern Rockies is

expected to be the trigger for developing thunderstorms this

evening. Isolated strong storms may occur from southeast New

Mexico to West Texas, with the potential for large hail, strong

wind gusts, and localized flash flooding. Unsettled weather is

also forecast to stretch into the central Rockies and central High

Plains. By Sunday, the aforementioned upper low is forecast to

slide eastward into the central Plains and shift thunderstorm

chances eastward throughout much of Texas and the lower

Mississippi Valley. However, the greatest threat with these storms

are likely to be associated with flash flooding, particularly

throughout parts of eastern and north-central Texas. Saturated

ground conditions and additional heavy rain may lead to numerous

instances of flash flooding, with Waco, Texas and points eastward

to near the Louisiana border under a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of

Excessive Rainfall on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are then

forecast to shift toward the central/western Gulf Coast and lower

Mississippi Valley, producing additional chances for flash

flooding and severe weather. Meanwhile, the northern end of the

precipitation shield is forecast to push ahead of a low pressure

system swinging from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi

Valley, with a few inches of rain possible into Kansas and

Missouri by the end of the weekend.



Unsettled weather may also dampen weekend plans from the Great

Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, as well the northern

Plains. A low pressure system tracking from the lower Great Lakes

this evening to the Mid-Atlantic coastline Sunday afternoon will

spread showers across the region, while also keeping temperatures

on the cooler side. Further west, a lingering frontal boundary may

spawn scattered thunderstorms across the northern Plains on Sunday.



A taste of summer is expected to continue for some folks as well

above average temperatures stretch from the West to the Midwest on

Mother's Day. Highs in the 70s and 80s will be widespread (90s in

the Southwest), with above average temperatures also impacting

southern Texas and Florida into Monday.



Snell





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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