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FXAK02 KWNH 112353

PMDAK 



Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

752 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024



Valid 12Z Wed May 15 2024 - 12Z Sun May 19 2024



...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...



The 12Z model guidance suite is in good agreement on depicting an

amplified trough over the Bering Sea and a downstream upper level

ridge across mainland Alaska for the middle of the week.  Greater

differences exist across the Gulf region with a weakening

trough/surface low, and the ECMWF is more defined with a trailing

low entering the Gulf on Thursday.  The GFS lifts the Bering Sea

low farther north over the Arctic Ocean, and the CMC closer to the

Bering Strait on Thursday. 



Going into Friday, the guidance still agrees with the placement of

the upper ridge near the Alaska/Yukon border and a deep upper

level trough near the West Coast of mainland Alaska, and southerly

flow across much of the state.  However, model spread becomes

substantial across the Aleutians and western Bering Sea region

going into next weekend, with low confidence on any given model

scenario.  The AIFS from the ECMWF supports a solution closer to

the CMC/ECMWF compared to the weaker GFS by Saturday with the next

low near Kodiak Island.  Therefore, a more ensemble mean based

approach was employed for the fronts/pressures by next Saturday

and Sunday, while still keeping some of the CMC/ECMWF.



...General Overview and Weather/Hazards Highlights...



Rain showers will likely be ongoing on Wednesday across portions

of southeastern Alaska with onshore flow ahead of a weakening

surface low approaching the coast.  Meanwhile, showers are

expected to increase in coverage across western Alaska through

Thursday as the Bering Sea low lifts north towards the Arctic

Ocean, along with some gusty southerly winds.  After that, the

next storm system is expected to arrive Friday across the Alaska

Peninsula region and bring renewed prospects for rain and mountain

snow to southern Alaska.  This then tracks in the general

direction of the southeast Panhandle region by next weekend. 

Temperatures are generally expected to range from the mid 50s to

upper 60s for most Interior locations south of the Brooks Range,

and 30s/40s north of the Brooks Range.  Lows will generally be in

the 30s to mid 40s.





Hamrick





Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC

medium range hazards outlook chart at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php



WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface

fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be

found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html



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