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FXUS01 KWBC 130727

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

327 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024



Valid 12Z Mon May 13 2024 - 12Z Wed May 15 2024



...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will impact portions of

the Gulf Coast today and the Southeast Tuesday...



...Above average temperatures expected for the West...





A strong upper low will push east across the central U.S. today

accompanied by a strengthening surface low pressure system that

will sweep across the southern tier. A warm front will lift north

across the Gulf Coast ahead of the system and prime the

environment for showers and thunderstorms today. Severe

thunderstorms are expected from central and east Texas across

portions of the Gulf Coast states to the Florida Panhandle, and

the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook highlights this

area with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms with

an embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. Potential storm

hazards will include significant wind gusts, very large hail, and

a few tornadoes. Additionally, anomalous moisture and high

instability over the Gulf Coast region will support waves of very

heavy rainfall that will likely lead to scattered to numerous

instances of flash flooding. There is Slight Risk (level 2/4) of

Excessive Rainfall in effect from east Texas across southern

portions of the Gulf Coast states to the Florida Panhandle and a

Moderate Risk (level 3/4) in effect from the toe of the Louisiana

boot to the western Florida Panhandle. Heavy rainfall will also be

possible further north in parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and

Upper Midwest along a slow moving frontal boundary draped over the

top of the southern low pressure system. 



The low pressure system will continue to move east through

mid-week, and the warm front will lift north across the Southeast

while the trailing cold front moves across the Lower Mississippi

Valley on Tuesday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are

forecast to develop across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, and

although the severe thunderstorm threat will be lower than it was

on Monday, isolated severe storms with heavy rainfall will be

possible in the Southeast. By Tuesday night, showers and storms

will expand into the northeast as well, then the southern low

pressure system will push into the Atlantic on Wednesday.



Unsettled weather is also expected to develop in the Intermountain

West and the northern and central Plains as a frontal system moves

south across the region over the next few days. Low pressure will

consolidate and strengthen over the northern/central Plains on

Tuesday and move towards the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, and

this system will create chances for showers and thunderstorms and

high elevation snow. 



Temperature-wise, highs will be generally above average for much

of the western third of the U.S. through mid-week, but cooler air

will move into the northern and central Rockies Tuesday into

Wednesday in the wake of a frontal system. Above average

temperatures are also forecast for the northern Plains, Great

Lakes, and Ohio Valley today, but temperatures will return to near

average or dip slightly below average Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures will be slightly below to near average for the rest

of the central and eastern U.S. with the exception of parts of

southern Texas and central and south Florida where temperatures

will remain above average. High temperatures in these areas will

be in the 90s and lower 100s, and some daily high temperature

records may be tied or broken.  

    



Dolan





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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