####018005569#### FXCA20 KWBC 131806 PMDCA TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 206 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2024 FORECAST BULLETIN 13 MAY 2024 AT 1815 UTC: A POTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...EXTENDING OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE IS FAVORING TRADE WIND CAP INVERSIONS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN AND LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL BE BLOCKING THE PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS COMING FROM THE NORTH...FAVORING DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. TO THE WEST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND DEEPENS OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS PRESSURES DECREASE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS INTO EASTERN MEXICO. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TO THE SOUTH...THE PASSING OF TROUGHS PROPAGATING FROM THE EAST WILL FAVOR INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE SIERRA MADRE DE CHIAPAS STARTING ON MONDAY. TO THE EAST...THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE CONVERGING ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS. THESE ARE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL CHIAPAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GUATEMALA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ON MONDAY. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM. ON TUESDAY...CENTRAL GUATEMALA...TO CHIAPAS...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL REGION...CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON WEDNESDAY...CHIAPAS...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. NORTHERN COAHUILA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN CENTRAL AMERICA...TROUGHS PROPAGATING ALONG THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION. EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...WHILE IN THE PACIFIC SIDE OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...THE ITCZ IS MEANDERING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND ASSISTING WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION. ALOFT...THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A GENERAL RIDGE SET UP...LIMITING PRECIPITATION TO LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ON MONDAY...FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA...ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE COUNTRY...INTO SOUTHWEST PANAMA...AND THE AZUERO PENINSULA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN COSTA RICA/PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON TUESDAY...FROM GUANACASTE TO THE OSA PENINSULA IN COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...FROM GUANACASTE TO WEST PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FROM THE AZUERO PENINSULA TO THE DARIEN REGION IN PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EASTERLY WAVES AND TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ALONG THE ITCZ/NET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALOFT...EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTOR OF THE CONTINENT...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE GUIANAS ON MONDAY. TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN SOUTHERN BRASIL AND EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...FAVORING VENTILATION IN ITS PERIPHERY FROM EAST ECUADOR TO THE GUIANAS. DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE EASTERLY WAVES AND TROUGH INTERACT WITH THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM NORTHERN PARA TO EASTERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL. MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN COLOMBIA DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. AN EASTERLY WAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN SURINAME AND WEST PARA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN PARA...WHILE A TROUGH OVER RORAIMA AND EAST AMAZONAS WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS. FROM CENTRAL COLOMBIA...INTO EAST ECUADOR AND NORTH PERU EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST ECUADOR. ON TUESDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE DISSIPATING OVER THE ANDEAN REGION IN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM FROM SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...TO WEST AMAZONAS AND EAST PERU. THE WAVE WILL ALSO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WEST PERU AND ECUADOR...AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND INTO THE DARIEN REGION IN PANAMA. AN EASTERLY LOCATED OVER WEST GUYANA AND INTO RORAIMA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GUIANAS AND INTO RORAIMA AND NORTHEAST AMAZONAS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN EASTERN COLOMBIA...WEST VENEZUELA...AND INTO AMAZONAS-BRASIL. GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA...ND CENTRAL AMAZONAS. WESTERN COLOMBIA AND WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ACOSTA...WPC (USA) $$