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FXUS01 KWBC 131959

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

359 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024



Valid 00Z Tue May 14 2024 - 00Z Thu May 16 2024



...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will impact portions of

the Gulf Coast tonight and the Southeast on Tuesday...



...Above-average temperatures expected for South Florida and the

West...



A slow-moving frontal boundary extending along the Gulf Coast will

remain a focus for unsettled weather, with severe thunderstorms

and heavy rain expected to impact portions of the region through

Tuesday.  Ongoing showers and storms are likely to continue

through tonight, with severe storms expected from south-central

and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the

Florida Panhandle.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has

highlighted these areas with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for

severe weather, indicating the potential exists for multiple

corridors of damaging winds, very large hail, and a few tornadoes.

 In addition to the severe weather threat, abundant moisture

pooling along front will support heavy rainfall and the potential

for flooding.  A Slight Risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall

extends along the Gulf Coast from southeast Texas through the

Florida Panhandle, with a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) from southeast

Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.



Drier air will push through the western Gulf Coast, confining the

threat for severe storms and heavy rainfall to northern Florida

and southern Georgia on Tuesday.  SPC is indicating a Slight Risk

(level 2/5) for severe weather and WPC is highlighting the area

with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. 



Further to the north, a low pressure system will drift slowly

east, spreading showers and thunderstorms from the lower Missouri

and mid Mississippi valleys to the Ohio Valley tonight.  Showers

and storms will continue across these areas on Tuesday while

expanding east through the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. 

Unsettled weather will persist across the Mid-Atlantic and the

Northeast through Wednesday.  A brief window of drier weather over

the Mississippi Valley late Tuesday into early Wednesday will be

followed by the next round of showers and storms that will begin

to spread into the region by late Wednesday. 



Before impacting the central U.S. on Wednesday, this previously

noted system will spread showers and storms followed by much

cooler temperatures from the northern Rockies into central Rockies

and High Plains on Tuesday. 



Temperatures will remain well above-normal, with near to record

high temperatures expected across South Florida Tuesday and

Wednesday.  While not expected to be record-setting, temperatures

will build across much of the West, reaching well-above normal

highs across the region by midweek.



Pereira



Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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