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FXCA20 KWBC 151844

PMDCA 



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

243 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2024



FORECAST BULLETIN 15 MAY 2024 AT 1845 UTC:

NOTE: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A REGION FOR

POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA.

PLEASE CHECK THE NHC WEBSITE FOR UPDATES ON THE DEVELOPMENT.



ON WEDNESDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE

GULF OF DARIEN AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...INTO

CENTRAL AMERICA...AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN COLOMBIA. THE ITCZ IS

LOCATED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ASSISTING

WITH VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION. IN THE LOWER

LEVELS...CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA IS SEEING THE

PROGRESSION OF EASTERLY WAVES AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION

WHILE THEY INTERACT WITH THE OROGRAPHY AND THE ITCZ. ON MONDAY...A

DISSIPATING EASTERLY WAVE IS LOCATED OVER EXTREME EAST COSTA RICA

AND IT IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN COSTA RICA AND IN WEST

PANAMA. NICARAGUA...AND THE REST OF PANAMA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF

15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH REMAIN IN THE

REGION. COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SOUTHERN

NICARAGUA AND THE GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF

20-35MM. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER WEST...PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO

SEE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE IS

ORGANIZING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGHS TO THE SOUTH OF

CHIAPAS...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR.  GENERAL SOUTHERLY ONSHORE

FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO

BRING LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO REGIONS OF SOUTHERN

CHIAPAS...INTO GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...NICARAGUA...AND EXTEND TO

COSTA RICA. THESE REGIONS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER LOCALIZED

AMOUNTS.



IN THE NORTH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED OVER THE UNITED

STATES EASTERN SEABOARD...CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO

ON MONDAY. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL

BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA

OF 20-35MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. ON TUESDAY...THE

PASSING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL

FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM WITH MODERATE RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. THE

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SQUALLY

REMAINS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY INTO

THURSDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER

AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY

FRIDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE.



IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE

NORTH ATLANTIC...INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND HAS ITS BASE INTO

NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH

RETROGRADES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND PROVIDES

VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION INTO EASTERN COLOMBIA...SOUTHERN

VENEZUELA...AND NORTHWEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL. IN ADDITION...AN

EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER THE SAME REGION ON

MONDAY...FAVORING MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN NORTHWEST

AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN EAST COLOMBIA AND INTO

SOUTHERN VENEZUELA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER

AMOUNTS. CENTRAL REGIONS OF COLOMBIA...AND INTO NORTHERN PERU CAN

EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...THERE IS A SUBTLE DECREASE

OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE NORTH SOUTH

AMERICA REGION. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE

EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 50MM IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WITH

THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN ECUADOR AND WEST COLOMBIA DUE TO

NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

WEST COLOMBIA AND WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FROM

VENEZUELA...TO EASTERN COLOMBIA...AND INTO

AMAZONAS-BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ALONG THE ATLANTIC

COASTAL REGIONS OF SURINAME...FRENCH GUIANA...AND AMAPA...EXPECT

MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...ISOLATED MAXIMA OF

15-25MM ARE EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE

WATER BEGIN TO INCREASE DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE IN THE

EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. INTERACTION OF TROUGHS AND EASTERLY WAVES

ALONG THE ITCZ WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN

GUIANAS...AND NORTHERN PARA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THE

COASTAL REGIONS FROM FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE ALONG THE

ITCZ. THEY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. SIMILARLY...THE NORTHERN

PORTIONS OF SURINAME AND GUYANA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SIMILAR

CONDITIONS...AND CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. EASTERLY WAVE

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.

NORTH AND WEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE

CENTRAL VENEZUELA...AND NORTH AMAZONAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF

20-35MM.



ACOSTA...WPC (USA)

















































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