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FXUS01 KWBC 152001

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

400 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024



Valid 00Z Thu May 16 2024 - 00Z Sat May 18 2024



...Unsettled weather persists across the Northeast and Central U.S

today...



...Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas

this week ...



...Significant flash flooding possible across portions of East

Texas into the Gulf States tomorrow and Friday...



Several focused areas of stormy and unsettled weather can be

expected today across the central and eastern parts of the Lower

48 as a series of frontal systems gradually migrate eastward.

Along the Eastern Seaboard, coastal low pressure located over the

southern DelMarVa will maintain locally heavy rainfall chances

over Eastern Long Island and Coastal New England through tomorrow

morning, with 2-3" of rain and isolated flash flooding possible as

the storm wraps up offshore. Much of this activity in the

Northeast will remain steady stratiform rainfall, with the bulk of

robust thunderstorms being confined to parts of the Mid-Atlantic

and Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will be more widespread

across the Plains states this afternoon as a very warm and moist

Gulf of Mexico airmass is drawn northward ahead of a weak cold

front. Severe weather is the big story there, as the Storm

Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe

thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle and Southern Kansas. 



The same Gulf airmass will set the stage for a bout of unusually

early hot weather in South Florida and Texas, with heat indices

exceeding 100 degrees possible. Owing to the combination of

oppressive heat indices and forecast record warm overnight

temperatures in these areas, major heat-related impacts are

possible with this round of hot weather through the work week

according to experimental NWS HeatRisk guidance.



The forecast remains on track for widespread heavy rainfall across

portions of East Texas and West Mississippi tomorrow as repeat

thunderstorm complexes track across the region, where a Moderate

Risk (level 3/4) is in effect. Areal averages of 3 to 5 inches of

rainfall is forecast for the Moderate Risk area, and locally

higher amounts will be possible, which suggests numerous instances

of flash flooding are likely as the region is very sensitive to

any additional rainfall. The threat is expected to roll into

Friday with another Moderate Risk depicted over southern

Mississippi and Alabama, as the environment is ripe for continued

thunderstorm development. 



Asherman



Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



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