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ACUS02 KWNS 140556

SWODY2

SPC AC 140555



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1255 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN OK

AND A PART OF NORTHWEST TX...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to

central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very

large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are

possible.



...Central/southern Great Plains...

A shortwave trough will be centered on the southeast Great Basin at

12Z Monday. Multiple embedded impulses will eject east across the

southern Rockies and Southwest, and onto the central to southern

High Plains by early morning Tuesday. This fragmented evolution and

timing of ejection onto the southern High Plains appears ill-timed

with the peak diurnal heating cycle. The southern/more vigorous of

the impulses will yield substantial tropospheric flow amplification

as a mid-level jetlet in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb evolves across

the southern TX Panhandle into south KS Monday night. 



Substantial lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains

by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through

12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest

Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or

deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew

points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of

the dryline by evening with low 60s to upper 50s with northern

extent in the central Great Plains.



Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development will

probably be bimodal, with more probable convection across the

central High Plains arcing east-southeast along the surface warm

front into the Mid-MO Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will be less

with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a

meridional to backed wind profile should be conducive to large hail

and isolated severe wind gusts. Along the warm front into the Mid-MO

Valley, most development should remain on the cool side of the

surface warm front amid northeast storm motions, but there will be

the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a

tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail. 



A separate corridor of a few storms should form in west TX along the

dryline within the deeply mixed air owing to a stout capping

inversion across the warm-moist sector where mid/upper-level

cloudiness should temper insolation. Mid-level height falls and

tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night. 00Z NCEP

guidance outside of the GFS suggest minimal to isolated convective

coverage should be expected until near the end of the period, while

the ECMWF remains consistent with earlier runs depicting

substantially greater convective development overnight. While this

lowers confidence in the degree of supercell coverage amid robust

MLCIN with southeast extent in OK/TX, have maintained level 3-ENH

risk where the conditional threat for strong supercells is greatest.



...VA/NC...

A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday,

with a ribbon of modest boundary-layer moisture along it. Strong

insolation will occur ahead of it into NC, yielding a deeply mixed

boundary layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for

isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon.

Moderate mid-level flow will be present and increase in height

within the peripheral influence of a strong jet across parts of the

Great Lakes into southern New England. Amid steep mid-level lapse

rates, overall setup should support a few multicells capable of

marginally severe hail initially, and strong to marginally severe

wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening after dusk.



..Grams.. 04/14/2024



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