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ACUS48 KWNS 140845

SWOD48

SPC AC 140844



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0344 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024



Valid 171200Z - 221200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...D4/Wednesday...

Guidance continues to suggest some severe threat will persist into

Wednesday afternoon given the strength of low to mid-level flow

before the Upper MS Valley surface cyclone further occludes and

dampens over the western to central Great Lakes. The northeast lobe

of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should be

more confined relative to D3/Tuesday. Thus, have only delineated a

small 15 percent highlight where consensus of guidance suggests the

best potential for daytime destabilization will overlap with the

stronger low to deep-layer flow. Low severe probabilities are

evident surrounding the highlight, both farther south-southwestward

in the TN Valley/Mid-South and northeastward deeper into IN/OH. 



...D5-8/Thursday-Sunday...

A broad mid/upper trough is still advertised to become established

over the Upper Midwest by about D5, with predictability waning in

its evolution into next weekend. This should yield surface high

pressure/ridging being periodically reinforced from at least the

northern High Plains into the central Great Plains. Within the

predominantly westerly mid-level flow regime across the rich

warm-moist sector, an elevated mixed layer should support at least

moderate buoyancy over parts of the TX/OK/AR/LA region. The

quasi-stationary baroclinic zone should eventually be pushed south

towards the northwest Gulf around next weekend. This overall setup

may support daily bouts of low-probability severe.



..Grams.. 04/14/2024