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ACUS01 KWNS 150055

SWODY1

SPC AC 150054



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0754 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024



Valid 150100Z - 151200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH

INTO NORTHERN WESTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms across the upper Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania

and vicinity will move southward toward Virginia and the Atlantic

Coast tonight, while weakening. Damaging winds and hail should be

the main threat, though a tornado or two will remain possible this

evening.



...01z Update...

The ongoing linear cluster of storms currently located across

eastern OH into central PA have produced numerous reports of hail

and damaging winds this evening. Generally, the intensity of these

storms has decreased as diurnal heating has waned and storms have

moved into a drier environment farther south. A slow weakening trend

is expected to continue into the evening as the cold front sags

south and the air mass stabilizes. However, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg

and moderate deep-layer shear should remain sufficient for damaging

gusts and some hail, especially with storms training on the western

edge of the ongoing complex. These storms are expected to move

south, while weakening, across western/central PA and into northern

WV/VA tonight. Given the relatively high observed cloud bases, the

tornado risk is appreciably lower, though strong low-level shear may

still support a brief spin up with the more organized storms.



Storm development will remain possible along western portions of the

front and the trailing outflow into central and northeastern OH

tonight. However, confidence in storm coverage here is low owing to

modest buoyancy and forcing for ascent. Will maintain MRGL/SLGT

probabilities here for hail and damaging winds. The main update to

the outlook was to remove the Level-3 ENH, and trim higher

probabilities from the north and west where the front and convection

have moved farther south.



..Lyons.. 04/15/2024



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