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ACUS48 KWNS 150847

SWOD48

SPC AC 150845



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0345 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024



Valid 181200Z - 231200Z



...DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered large hail and isolated severe wind gusts are

evident on D4/Thursday from the Ozark Plateau into central TX. Low

probability severe may persist into D5-6, mainly across parts of TX,

with severe potential appearing negligible around D7-8.



A northern-stream mid/upper trough should shift east from the

Northwest into the Upper Midwest on D4. A more piecemeal eastward

evolution is progged into the weekend amid multiple embedded

impulses. The southern stream is expected to remain relatively weak

and quasi-zonal, although there are indications of lower-amplitude

impulses migrating through the flow. 



The best potential for severe appears focused on D4. Both the 00Z

NAM/ECMWF hint at elevated convection developing across the central

Great Plains late D3 on Thursday morning within a strengthening

low-level warm theta-e advection regime south of the trough shifting

into the Upper Midwest. Robust diabatic heating is expected in the

warm-moist sector over the southern Great Plains, with the largest

buoyancy so far this week ahead of the dryline in TX.



As surface ridging noses down the High Plains, a lee cyclone will be

forced east-southeast into OK as a developing frontal wave.

Above-average agreement exists across guidance with surface-based

convective development along both the southwest/northeast-oriented

baroclinic zone and dryline. Primary uncertainty with southern

extent is the degree of deep-layer shear as wind profiles appear

weak to modest over most of the larger buoyancy plume. Have

delineated a 15 percent area where potential for a few supercells

and multicell clusters is evident on Thursday afternoon, with an

implied lower severe probability extending farther southwest through

much of central TX.



..Grams.. 04/15/2024