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ACUS01 KWNS 160101

SWODY1

SPC AC 160059



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0759 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024



Valid 160100Z - 161200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE

ENH RISK OVER THE PLAINS...AND ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE

ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the

Great Plains tonight. Several tornadoes, perhaps strong, large to

very large hail, and damaging wind gusts all appear possible.

Scattered severe gusts will linger this evening across portions of

the middle Atlantic.



...01z Update...



Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts moistening at midlevels

across southwestern NE/western KS into the eastern OK Panhandle.

This is likely the leading edge of large-scale ascent that is

spreading into the central Plains. Over the last hour or so,

boundary-layer cu have gradually deepened along the dryline and

lightning may soon develop with strengthening updrafts. Supercells

are expected to evolve along this corridor soon and subsequent

movement downstream into the central Plains is anticipated, in line

with 20z outlook. Environmental shear/buoyancy favor very large

hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.



Farther south across the TX South Plains, strong surface heating has

contributed to dry adiabatic surface-3km lapse rates. 00z sounding

from MAF supports this and surface-6km bulk shear is also around

60kt. Earlier thunderstorm activity that evolved over northwest TX

has struggled to organize, but agitated boundary-layer cu might

organize along the dryline between LBB-ABI. Increasing large-scale

ascent could encourage upscale growth over the next few hours.



Across the middle Atlantic, a narrow corridor of instability has yet

to be overturned across southeastern VA, immediately ahead of

convection that is sagging into this region. 00z soundings from

GSO/MHX do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy with seasonally low PWs

farther south. Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, continues

for the next few hours with convection has it settles south toward

the VA/NC border. Otherwise, overall severe risk appears to be

gradually lowering.



..Darrow.. 04/16/2024



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