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ACUS03 KWNS 160727

SWODY3

SPC AC 160726



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024



Valid 181200Z - 191200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX

REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail

will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward

the Ohio Valley.



...Synopsis...

An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad

upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS

Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel

temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest

midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI.



At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward

across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending

northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak

low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with

perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary.



Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough,

southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the

Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30

kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front

from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR.

Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along

the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at

time given differences in model output.



...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley...

An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor

thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern

areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas

of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger

instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the

upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift,

instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into

southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until

peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit

earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated.



..Jewell.. 04/16/2024



$$