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ACUS02 KWNS 181657

SWODY2

SPC AC 181655



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024



Valid 191200Z - 201200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE

SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...



...SUMMARY...

Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are still possible

tomorrow (Friday) over parts of the Southeast.



...Synopsis...

A broad mid-level trough will traverse Ontario and Quebec, with

mainly zonal flow overspreading the central and northern CONUS

tomorrow (Friday). Meanwhile, a smaller mid-level trough is poised

to eject into the southern High Plains at the end of the period. A

surface cold front will sweep across the eastern U.S. in advance of

the first mid-level trough, providing enough low-level ascent to

support scattered strong thunderstorm development given adequate

buoyancy and vertical wind shear preceding the front. For Friday

night into Saturday morning, the approach of the southwestern

mid-level trough will encourage low-level jet development over the

southern Plains, with scattered to widespread thunderstorm

development expected along the low-level jet terminus, where

low-level convergence will be strongest.



...Parts of the Southeast toward the Carolina Piedmont...

Surface temperatures are expected to warm above 80 F amid low to mid

60s F dewpoints ahead of the surface cold front, boosting SBCAPE

from 1000-2000 J/kg across the warm sector. Modest westerly 500 mb

flow from the glancing mid-level trough will overspread a 15-20 kt

southwesterly 850 mb wind field, resulting in elongated hodographs

and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, organized multicells

and transient supercells are expected to initiate ahead of the cold

front by afternoon, accompanied by occasional instances of hail and

gusty winds. A couple instances of severe hail/wind could occur with

some of the stronger storms, especially if a more pronounced

supercell structure can become established.



...Central and northern Texas...

A strongly capped boundary layer is expected to reside across much

of TX through the period, limiting the chances for surface-based

convective initiation. As the low level jet strengthens overnight,

the jet terminus is expected to become situated somewhere near the

Red River, where isentropic ascent should lift elevated buoyant

parcels to their LFC and initiate scattered to potentially numerous

thunderstorms. LFCs are expected to be between 700-600 mb, which

should restrict CAPE to thin profiles, limiting severe hail

production. Nonetheless, given elongated hodographs and steep

mid-level lapse rates, at least small hail is possible and a sparse

instance of severe hail cannot be ruled out, though the coverage

seems too isolated/localized to warrant probabilities at this time.



..Squitieri.. 04/18/2024



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