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ACUS01 KWNS 191232

SWODY1

SPC AC 191231



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0731 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024



Valid 191300Z - 201200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS

AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...



...SUMMARY...

Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts

of the Southeast later today.



...Southeast this afternoon/evening...

A closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves

eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley.  An associated surface

cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the

southern Appalachians.  A weak lead shortwave trough (enhanced some

by overnight convection) will move eastward over the southern

Appalachians and Piedmont this morning and the eastern Carolinas by

early-mid afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with

the lead trough farther east in the Carolinas this afternoon, with

little larger-scale forcing for ascent farther west.  Still, widely

scattered thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon

in conjunction with weak ascent along the front and local terrain

circulations across the western parts of the MRGL risk area. 

Weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening

low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized

storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally

severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening.



...TX through tonight...

Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor

thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre

Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a

couple of supercells.  However, it is not clear that storm motions

will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering

convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they

manage to cross the border.  Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated

convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm

advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM.

Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates

and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail

appears too low to warrant an outlook area.



..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/19/2024



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