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ACUS01 KWNS 191952

SWODY1

SPC AC 191950



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024



Valid 192000Z - 201200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF

THE SOUTHEAST...



...SUMMARY...

Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts

of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening.



Little change made to the outlook at 20Z.



...Southeast...

Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath

modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but

sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and

sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging

gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near

a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern

SC may yield the strongest cells.



See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details.



..Jewell.. 04/19/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/



...Southeast this afternoon/evening...

Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough

moving east across the southern Appalachians.  This feature will

reach the VA/NC coast early tonight.  Farther northwest, a closed

midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over

the Great Lakes and OH Valley.  An associated surface cold front

will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern

Appalachians.  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be

possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. 

Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little

larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. 

Additional storm development will be associated with the front and

orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians.  Overall

weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening

low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized

storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally

severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening.



...TX through tonight...

--No change needed to previous forecast discussion--

Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor

thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre

Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a

couple of supercells.  However, it is not clear that storm motions

will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering

convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they

manage to cross the border.  Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated

convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm

advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM.

Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates

and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail

appears too low to warrant an outlook area.



$$