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ACUS01 KWNS 211246

SWODY1

SPC AC 211245



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0745 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024



Valid 211300Z - 221200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS

AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and large hail near 1 inch

diameter will be possible for a few hours this afternoon/evening

across south Georgia and north Florida.



...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening...

A low amplitude shortwave trough over the north central Gulf coast

will progress eastward over south GA/north FL by late afternoon, in

advance of an upstream trough over the mid MS Valley.  An associated

cold front will move slowly southeastward and offshore of the

Carolinas this afternoon, and into central FL by Monday morning. 

Regional 12z soundings from JAX/TLH show lingering steep midlevel

lapse rates and an associated cap which is expected to weaken from

the west by afternoon, when thunderstorm development will become

more probable with surface heating, ascent along the front, and with

larger-scale ascent related to the approaching midlevel trough.  The

warm sector ahead of the front across south GA/north FL will be

characterized by mid 60s dewpoints and surface temperatures ranging

from the mid 70s to lower 80s in cloud breaks by afternoon, where

MLCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg.  Coincident with diurnal

destabilization, midlevel flow will increase to 50 kt with largely

straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt.  This

environment of moderate buoyancy and vertical shear will support the

potential for multicell clusters and/or low-end supercells capable

of producing isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph and large hail near

1 inch in diameter for a few hours this afternoon/evening.



..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/21/2024



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