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ACUS01 KWNS 211626

SWODY1

SPC AC 211624



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024



Valid 211630Z - 221200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH

FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible

for a few hours this afternoon/evening across south Georgia and

north Florida.



...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening...

Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows a cumulus field

and a destabilizing airmass to the east of an ongoing band of

convection near a southwest-northeast oriented front.  Ample heating

over the area to the east of patchy cirrus will promote temperatures

warming into the lower 80s deg F.  12z model guidance so far has a

negative bias on surface dewpoints across north FL compared to

observations (3-6 deg F too dry).  This is partially explained by a

richer moist profile observed through almost 850 mb via the 12z

Tallahassee raob.  As a result, slightly higher dewpoints (upper 60s

deg F) and greater buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected

than previously forecast.  Water-vapor imagery shows a lead

disturbance moving east across the central Gulf Coast, and it will

reach the northeast Gulf by late this afternoon/early evening. 

Ascent and some strengthening in flow will aid in some storm

organization (reference 50-kt 2-6 km flow at Tallahassee on the 88D

VAD).  Limited low-level convergence and a warm layer near 800 mb

may act to hinder an otherwise more organized potential severe

setup.  Regardless, isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe

hail are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon into the

early evening.



..Smith/Jewell.. 04/21/2024



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