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ACUS01 KWNS 211947

SWODY1

SPC AC 211945



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0245 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024



Valid 212000Z - 221200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST

GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible

for a few hours this afternoon/evening across southeast Georgia and

north Florida.



...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida...

Within the past few hours, a transient supercell on the northern

fringe of the effective warm sector along the SC coast produced a

measured severe (58 mph) wind gust, indicating that the environment

across northern FL into southeast GA remains conducive for severe

storms. However, convection has struggled to maintain intensity over

the past few hours despite steadily diminishing MLCIN - possibly

owing to a temporal displacement between the initial storms and the

more favorable thermodynamic environment that is currently becoming

established. Renewed attempts at convective initiation along the

cold front are noted across south-central GA, so a severe wind/hail

risk should persist for the next several hours (see forthcoming MCD

#504 for details). Latest CAM guidance suggests this potential will

be maximized between 21-00 UTC across southeast GA into far northern

FL before the front moves off the GA coast and nocturnal cooling

begins to hinder surface-based convection further south into the FL

peninsula.



..Moore.. 04/21/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/



...North FL/south GA this afternoon/evening...

Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows a cumulus field

and a destabilizing airmass to the east of an ongoing band of

convection near a southwest-northeast oriented front.  Ample heating

over the area to the east of patchy cirrus will promote temperatures

warming into the lower 80s deg F.  12z model guidance so far has a

negative bias on surface dewpoints across north FL compared to

observations (3-6 deg F too dry).  This is partially explained by a

richer moist profile observed through almost 850 mb via the 12z

Tallahassee raob.  As a result, slightly higher dewpoints (upper 60s

deg F) and greater buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected

than previously forecast.  Water-vapor imagery shows a lead

disturbance moving east across the central Gulf Coast, and it will

reach the northeast Gulf by late this afternoon/early evening. 

Ascent and some strengthening in flow will aid in some storm

organization (reference 50-kt 2-6 km flow at Tallahassee on the 88D

VAD).  Limited low-level convergence and a warm layer near 800 mb

may act to hinder an otherwise more organized potential severe

setup.  Regardless, isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe

hail are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon into the

early evening.



$$