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ACUS02 KWNS 220545

SWODY2

SPC AC 220544



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



Valid 231200Z - 241200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts

of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far

southwest Oklahoma.



...Southern Plains...

An upper-level ridge will build into the Rockies on Tuesday, as

mid-level flow remains from the west-northwest across the southern

Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across

western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. South of the front,

surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 50s F across

northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during

the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop, with MLCAPE

expected to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings

on Tuesday in the afternoon have a capping inversion in place.

However, increasing low-level convergence along the front may be

enough for isolated convective initiation. Any storms that form

would be high-based, and in an environment with moderate deep-layer

shear and steep lapse rates. This could support a potential for

isolated supercells with large hail. A strong wind gust or two would

also be possible. The capping inversion should keep any severe

threat in a relatively narrow window, from late afternoon into the

early evening.



..Broyles.. 04/22/2024



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