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ACUS03 KWNS 220732

SWODY3

SPC AC 220731



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0231 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



Valid 241200Z - 251200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for strong

wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of

the southern Plains.



...Southern Plains...

An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the High

Plains on Wednesday, as flow at mid-levels remains

west-northwesterly across the southern Plains. At the surface, a

moist airmass will be in place across much of Texas into Oklahoma,

with a warm front located from west Texas Panhandle eastward into

central Oklahoma. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in

the 60s F. A north-to-south corridor of moderate instability is

expected to develop across west Texas during the day, with weaker

instability extending eastward across much of Texas and Oklahoma.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis in west Texas during

the late afternoon suggest that a capping inversion will be in

place. The cap could weaken enough in areas that heat up the most,

to allow for isolated convective development. Forecast soundings

near Midland and Lubbock by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE peaking near

2000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear at 40 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates.

If a cell can overcome the cap, then isolated supercell development

would be possible, with a threat for hail and strong wind gusts.

This threat is highly conditional. 



Further northeast along the warm front in central Oklahoma, some

model solutions suggest that elevated storms will develop during the

afternoon or evening. Forecast sounding in central Oklahoma have

MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, with effective shear around 50 knots. This

could be enough for a marginal hail threat.



..Broyles.. 04/22/2024



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