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ACUS02 KWNS 221703

SWODY2

SPC AC 221702



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1202 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024



Valid 231200Z - 241200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST

TEXAS AND VICINITY...AND OVER PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts

of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far

southwest Oklahoma, and over parts of Lower Michigan.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

On Tuesday, a northwest flow regime will exist from the Rockies to

the East Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving across the

upper MS Valley, Great Lakes and OH Valley. Temporary ridging will

occur over the Great Basin before a deep upper trough provides

height falls into CA late.



At the surface, high pressure will be centered over GA and SC, which

will produce dry and stable conditions for much of the region. South

of the high, low-level moisture trajectories will extend from the

Bahamas across the southern Gulf of Mexico, with 50s dewpoints

spreading north into central TX and OK. Another area of high

pressure will exist over the northern High Plains, with a surface

trough generally from Lake Huron to northwest TX during the

afternoon. 



Low pressure will exist ahead of the northern trough near Lake

Huron, with another developing low over the TX Panhandle/South

Plains area, just south of a front. This front will extend

northeastward from the low across OK, southern MO, and to the OH

Valley, with instability focused over northwest TX.  Minimal

instability may also develop over Lower MI.



...Northwest TX and Vicinity...

Strong heating will occur near the developing low and south of the

southwest-northeast oriented front. Weak northwest flow aloft will

couple with veering low-level winds to favor a few severe storms

capable of hail and strong gusts near peak heating. Forecast

soundings reveal straight hodographs, which will favor cellular

storm mode. Steep lapse rates will favor hail while the deeply mixed

boundary layer supports strong outflow as well.



...Lower Michigan...

Strong midlevel cooling will occur across the upper Great Lakes

region as the upper trough pushes southeast. Combined with daytime

heating, this will yield very steep lapse rates which will favor

strong storms despite only 40s F dewpoints. Convergence along the

front looks to be favorably timed with peak heating, with scattered

low-topped storms expected. Given very cold 500 mb temperatures to

-25 C, hail will be likely, with a few storms perhaps capable of

hail to severe levels.



..Jewell.. 04/22/2024



$$