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ACUS02 KWNS 231728

SWODY2

SPC AC 231726



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024



Valid 241200Z - 251200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS

INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...



...SUMMARY...

Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of

Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the

primary hazards.



...Synopsis...

Upper pattern is expected to feature a shortwave trough from western

Quebec through western New York early Wednesday, with another

shortwave well off the southern CA Coast. Shortwave ridging is

anticipated between these two troughs. This entire

trough/ridge/trough pattern is forecast to move eastward during the

period, with the eastern shortwave trough moving off the

Northeast/New England coast by Wednesday evening, and the western

shortwave trough making steady eastward progress, likely extending

from southern NV into southwest AZ/far northwest Mexico by early

Thursday morning. Shortwave ridging will be maintained between these

troughs, ending the period over the Great Plains.



At the surface, a cold front associated with the Northeast shortwave

will progress quickly eastward, moving off the Northeast coast by

the late afternoon and off the Mid-Atlantic coast later during the

evening. Farther west, modest lee troughing is anticipated early

Wednesday, with a weak surface low likely over the Texas

Trans-Pecos. Lee troughing is expected to sharpen throughout the

day, with the surface low likely deepening as well. At the same

time, persistent low-level theta-e advection across TX will

contribute to the sharpening of a stalled frontal boundary from the

southeast TX Panhandle across southern OK. By late Wednesday

night/early Thursday morning, this front will likely begin pushing

northward across the eastern TX Panhandle and OK as a warm front.



...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles into central OK early Wednesday...

Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early Wednesday morning from

the northeast TX/eastern OK Panhandles into central/north-central OK

within the warm-air advection regime along the northeastern edge of

the returning low-level moisture. Gradually strengthening westerly

flow aloft will support enough vertical shear for organized updrafts

and the potential for some storms strong enough to produce large

hail. Background height rises cast some doubts for overall storm

severity, but thunderstorms will likely persist into the afternoon

as they move generally southeastward.



...TX Panhandle through Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon...

Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northwestward into the

southern High Plains throughout the day. As such, low 60s dewpoints

are expected from the TX Panhandle southward to the Big Bend by the

early afternoon. Even so, mid-level temperatures and associated

capping will likely preclude widespread deep convection. Some

isolated development does appear probable, particularly where

persistent low-level convergence favors multiple attempts at storm

development. Given strong buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear,

any convection that is maintained and matures should become

supercellular with the potential to produce large to very large hail

and strong, damaging downdrafts. 



...TX Panhandle into OK Wednesday night into Thursday morning...

Another round of elevated convection is possible from the southern

TX Panhandle into northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into

Thursday morning, as low to mid-level moisture spreads northward in

advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy

and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat

within any more established storms.



...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England...

Shallow convection is anticipated along and in the wake of the cold

front forecast to move quickly eastward/southeastward across the

region. Shallow nature to the convection should keep lightning

isolated, but a few damaging gusts are still possible as downdrafts

augment the moderate westerly low-level flow in place.



..Mosier.. 04/23/2024



$$