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ACUS01 KWNS 250524

SWODY1

SPC AC 250522



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024



Valid 251200Z - 261200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon

into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains.

Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes

will all be possible.



...Great Plains...



Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the

southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast

to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period

before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and

central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee

surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late

afternoon.  While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z,

boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High

Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface

temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that

convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed

with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have

spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and

should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell

initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable

shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will

be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected

with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong.

LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE

during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the

western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm

advection increases during the latter half of the period.



Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal

corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the

late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve

along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset.

However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late

evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to

develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular

in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster

that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large

hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to

more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will

continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat

elevated.



..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024



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