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ACUS02 KWNS 250602

SWODY2

SPC AC 250600



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024



Valid 261200Z - 271200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF

EASTERN NE...NORTHEAST KS...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...



...SUMMARY...

An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts

of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great

Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes (possibly strong), large to very

large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible.



...Synopsis...

A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant

surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper

Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific

front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the

central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A

warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across

MO into parts of IA. Farther west, another deep mid/upper-level

trough will move eastward across the Southwest into the southern

Rockies. 



...Eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO...

Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible from

eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO, though coverage of the threat with

southward extent somewhat uncertain at this time. 



In the wake of morning convection, at least a narrow zone of

moderate destabilization will be possible from parts of eastern NE

into western IA, between the northward-moving warm front and

approaching Pacific front/dryline. Scattered thunderstorm

development is expected during the afternoon, with favorably veering

low-level wind profiles and moderate deep-layer shear supporting

supercell potential. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail

threat, with some potential for very large hail depending on the

magnitude of destabilization. A few tornadoes will also be possible,

both in the vicinity of the surface low, and with any longer-lived

supercells along the dryline into southeast NE/southwest IA. 



Farther south, a broader and potentially more unstable warm sector

is expected to evolve across eastern KS into western MO. While

large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent, at least

isolated supercell development will be possible along the dryline by

late afternoon. Any sustained supercells within this regime would

pose a threat for tornadoes and very large hail. A strong tornado or

will be possible if stronger pre-convective destabilization can

materialize.  



...Eastern OK/northeast TX into AR/southern MO...

Initially strong storm clusters are expected to move across eastern

OK and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through the morning,

accompanied by at least an isolated hail and damaging gust threat.

Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the

eastern periphery of the primary instability axis. The eastern

extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable

low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized

convection, with an isolated/marginal threat for all severe hazards.



Farther west, moderate to strong instability and deep-layer shear

will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline

from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing

shortwave trough, development along the dryline in this area will

likely be very isolated, though any sustained cells would pose a

threat for very large hail and possibly a tornado.



...Edwards Plateau into the Permian Basin vicinity of TX...

As the dryline retreats late Friday night, convection could develop

prior to the end of the period into parts of southwest TX, in

advance of the approaching southwestern trough. Instability and

shear would be sufficient for organized convection, though timing

and coverage of any threat in this area remain too uncertain at this

time for probabilities.



..Dean.. 04/25/2024



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