####018002595####
ACUS48 KWNS 250902

SWOD48

SPC AC 250900



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024



Valid 281200Z - 031200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...D4/Sunday - Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley...

Some severe threat is expected persist into D4/Sunday from northeast

TX into parts of the upper MS Valley, as an amplified

mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves from the Great Plains into

the upper Great Lakes region. Substantial convection on D3/Saturday

results in some uncertainty regarding storm evolution on Sunday.

However, guidance generally suggests that a strong mid/upper-level

jet associated with the ejecting shortwave will overspread a

relatively moist warm sector, with potential redevelopment of

organized convection along/ahead of a cold front. 



There is some potential for the threat to be bimodal, with one

potential area from eastern KS into northern MO and IA in closer

proximity to the ejecting shortwave, and a separate area across the

ArkLaTex vicinity, within a region of somewhat more favorable

moisture and instability. However, with storm evolution remaining

rather uncertain, a continuous 15% area has been maintained in this

outlook, with some adjustments. 



...D5/Monday - Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley...

Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough

will move across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley on Monday.

There is some potential for this shortwave to impinge upon a region

of moderate to strong buoyancy along and south of a weak surface

boundary that may begin to lift northward across parts of TX/LA

during the day. A few severe storms with a threat of hail and

damaging winds would be possible in this scenario. However,

uncertainty related to substantial antecedent convection and its

effect on boundary placement renders predictability too low for

probabilities at this time. 



...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday...

Spread begins to notably increase in extended-range guidance

regarding pattern evolution by D6/Tuesday. In general, stronger

mid/upper-level flow is expected to shift northward, through there

will be some potential for shortwave troughs and related cold fronts

to impinge upon a reservoir of richer low-level moisture and

stronger buoyancy from the southern Plains into parts of the

Southeast/OH Valley. Confidence in the details regarding any severe

potential in this time frame is much too low for probabilities with

this outlook.



..Dean.. 04/25/2024