####018002380####
ACUS03 KWNS 260727

SWODY3

SPC AC 260726



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0226 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024



Valid 281200Z - 291200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX

INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday

across a broad area from northeast Texas into parts of the upper

Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple

tornadoes will all be possible.



...Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley...

A broad region of at least some severe potential is expected on

Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley.

Uncertainty remains high due to the influence of extensive

antecedent convection leading into the D3/Sunday period. 



A negatively tilted shortwave trough and attendant surface low are

forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley

on Sunday. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at the start

of the period from Texas toward the lower MO Valley, and potentially

farther north into parts of the upper Midwest. Some lingering severe

threat could accompany this morning convection, especially toward

the ArkLaTex region where somewhat more favorable

moisture/instability will be in place. 



Widespread cloudiness/convection across much of the warm sector will

tend to limit diurnal destabilization, though deep-layer shear will

remain favorable for organized storms, and some

heating/destabilization will be possible in the wake of morning

convection. 



One area of potential redevelopment will be immediately ahead of the

ejecting shortwave trough from eastern KS into western MO and

southern IA, where a few stronger cells/clusters could pose a threat

of hail, isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. 



Vigorous redevelopment will also be possible along the

western/southern periphery of persistent convection near the

ArkLaTex region, where rich moisture and favorable wind profiles

could support at least an isolated threat for all severe hazards.

Some threat could linger into Sunday night across this area,

potentially aided by an upstream low-amplitude shortwave trough that

will be approaching the southern Plains.



..Dean.. 04/26/2024



$$