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ACUS01 KWNS 261254

SWODY1

SPC AC 261253



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024



Valid 261300Z - 271200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS

AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST

MO/SOUTHWEST IA...



...SUMMARY...

A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated

very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind

damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from

northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and

southwest Iowa.  Occasional severe storms are expected farther south

into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas.



...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight...

A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in

northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and

the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from

eastern OK into eastern KS.  An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind

damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm

front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of

these storms.  Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm

sector extends across central KS.



The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward

western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther

northeast into southwest/central MO.  The OK/AR portion of this

convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface

warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or

embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards.  



The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm

sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will

potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm

sector this afternoon.  Assuming sufficient recovery during the day,

there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along

the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast

KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. 

MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid

60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph

curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective

SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong

tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells.  Isolated

very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be

possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will

accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening.



Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther

southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the

southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough.  The 12z FWD

sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some

to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential

today.  Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height

rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the

west.



..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024



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