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ACUS01 KWNS 261627

SWODY1

SPC AC 261625



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1125 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024



Valid 261630Z - 271200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN

OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated

very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind

damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from

northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into western Missouri, eastern

Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas.



...NE/IA/MO/KS...

Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across

KS/NE.  A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over

central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS.  A

corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline

over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to

moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by

mid-afternoon.  Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles

will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with

very large hail and tornadoes possible.  These storms will progress

eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening.

 A strong tornado or two is possible in this region.



...OK/MO/AR...

A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened

and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture

occurring in the wake of the system.  By mid-afternoon, mid-upper

60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. 

Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and

favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of

all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. 

Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR

this evening.  CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but

parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given

the conditional risk of significant severe weather.



...Northeast TX...

A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts

of northeast and east-central TX today.  A cluster of

severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco,

TX.  These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the

afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. 

Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with

sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell

structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail.  Given

the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also

upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH.



..Hart/Lyons.. 04/26/2024



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