####018004237#### ACUS01 KWNS 270101 SWODY1 SPC AC 270059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible, large hail and wind damage remain possible this evening across parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will also be possible from the Ozarks southward into the Ark-La-Tex. Hail will be possible late tonight in parts of west and northwest Texas. ...Lower To Mid Missouri Valley... A negatively tilted upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is currently moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Just ahead of the trough, a cluster of severe storms is located near the nose of a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture and instability. Surface dewpoints along this corridor are in the low to mid 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP around 1500 J/kg. In addition, a 50 to 60 knot low to mid-level jet is located across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. This feature is creating strong deep-layer and very strong low-level shear. This shear is being sampled by the Des Moines WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, a looping hodograph, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 650 m2/s2. This environment will continue to be favorable for supercells and tornadoes over the next few hours as the cluster moves east-northeastward across central and southern Iowa. Isolated large hail and wind damage will also be possible with the stronger storms within this cluster. The severe threat should become more isolated late this evening as the cluster moves into weaker instability across northern and eastern Iowa. Further to the south, a small cluster of severe storms is ongoing in western Missouri. This cluster is located along the eastern edge of a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The cluster is also located just to the west of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The Springfield, Missouri WSR-88D VWP is sampling the low-level jet, and has a looping hodograph with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 700 m2/s2. This will continue to support an isolated tornado threat with supercells for a couple more hours this evening. A threat for large hail and isolated wind damage will also exist with these storms. As these storm clusters move eastward into the Mississippi River Valley late this evening into the overnight period, the severe threat is expected to become marginal. Hail and isolated wind damage will the primary threats. ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... The latest water-vapor imagery shows what appears to be a subtle shortwave trough moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from northeast Texas into western Arkansas. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing along the eastern edge of the low-level jet, where surface dewpoints range from 65 to 70 F, and the RAP has MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg. In addition, the Shreveport, LA WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km near 40 knots, with a gradually veering winds with height. This should be enough to continue a severe threat for a few more hours this evening. The stronger rotating cells and bowing line segments will have a potential for large hail and wind damage. ...West/Northwest Texas... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest tonight. Ahead of the system, strong moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains. A dryline in west-central Texas will retreat westward this evening, allowing for moderate instability to develop across parts of west Texas. As a low-level jet strengthens across west Texas late tonight, elevated strong thunderstorms are expected to develop from the eastern edge of the Caprock northeastward into the northwest Texas. These storms will have a chance for isolated large hail. ..Broyles.. 04/27/2024 $$