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ACUS02 KWNS 270559

SWODY2

SPC AC 270557



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1257 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024



Valid 281200Z - 291200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX

NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday

from northeast Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley.

Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.



...East TX into the upper MS Valley...

A broad region of at least some severe potential is still expected

on Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley.

Within this larger region, it appears the greatest relative threat

may develop from northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR/northwest

LA. However, with very extensive convection expected upstream on

D1/Saturday, uncertainty is too high to increase probabilities at

this time. 



A negatively tilted shortwave trough and attendant surface low are

forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley

on Sunday. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing at the start

of the period from Texas toward the lower MO Valley, and potentially

farther north into parts of the upper Midwest. Some lingering severe

threat could accompany this morning convection, especially toward

the ArkLaTex region where somewhat more favorable

moisture/instability will be in place. 



There is some potential for morning convection to remain somewhat

organized and continue eastward with a severe threat, but the

greater concern will be with redevelopment in the wake of morning

convection, with rich low-level moisture expected to remain in place

along/ahead of the dryline, which will likely extend from eastern

NE/KS into central OK/TX by late afternoon. 



One area of potential redevelopment will be immediately ahead of the

ejecting shortwave trough from eastern KS/NE into western MO and

southern IA, where a few stronger cells/clusters could pose a threat

of hail, isolated damaging gusts, and a tornado or two. The

magnitude of this threat will be strongly dependent on the extent of

diurnal destabilization in the wake of morning convection.  



Potentially more vigorous redevelopment will be possible along the

western/southern periphery of remnant early convection near the

ArkLaTex region, where rich moisture and favorable wind profiles

will support organized convection, if sufficient

recovery/destabilization can occur. Supercells will be possible,

though there may be a tendency toward cluster or linear mode as

storm coverage increases. Damaging gusts, hail and a few tornadoes

will be possible within this regime, though magnitude and favored

placement of the threat remain uncertain at this time. 



...Northeast OH into PA...

A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon from

northeast OH into PA, within a weakly forced northwest-flow regime.

At this time, instability appears too weak to support an organized

severe threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible

with the strongest storms.



..Dean.. 04/27/2024



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