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ACUS03 KWNS 270730

SWODY3

SPC AC 270729



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024



Valid 291200Z - 301200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM

CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday

from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi

Valley.



...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough initially near the upper Great Lakes region is

forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In

its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move

across the southern Plains. Across the west, a shortwave trough and

related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward

the northern Rockies by Monday evening. 



...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley...

A storm cluster may be ongoing somewhere near the ArkLaTex region

Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the

approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastward progression

of any such cluster and magnitude of downstream destabilization

remain quite uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail, damaging

wind, and possibly a tornado could spread into the lower MS Valley

through the day. 



...Parts of central/south TX...

An outflow reinforced front may move into parts of central TX early

Monday, in the wake of extensive ongoing convection father east.

This front will may stall and either begin moving northward by

afternoon, or just become increasingly ill-defined with time. While

stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong

heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong

destabilization, and isolated storm development will be possible.

Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization,

so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and

isolated severe gusts. 



...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes

region...

A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH

Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach

parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate

deep-layer flow may persist along/ahead of the front,

destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness

and weakening midlevel lapse rates. While a strong storm or two

cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, uncertainty regarding

the development of adequate instability precludes probabilities at

this time.



..Dean.. 04/27/2024



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