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ACUS48 KWNS 270858

SWOD48

SPC AC 270857



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0357 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024



Valid 301200Z - 051200Z



...DISCUSSION...

Extended range guidance has trended toward somewhat greater severe

thunderstorm potential through much of next week, though there will

still be a tendency for stronger deep-layer flow to be somewhat

displaced from stronger instability through the period.

Predictability remains too low to include 15% areas at this time. 



...D4/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest...

A relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant mid/upper-level

jet is expected to move across the central Plains on Tuesday.

Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop across the southern

Plains, with some potential for at least moderate destabilization

into the central Plains and upper Midwest. Depending on the timing

of the shortwave and extent of northward moisture return, some

severe threat could evolve in advance of the shortwave trough, and

also southward along the trailing front and down the dryline. 



...D5/Wednesday into D6/Thursday - Parts of the Great Plains...

Guidance has generally trended toward some amplification of the

upper pattern by midweek, with a tendency toward broad troughing

across the western CONUS. Modest mid/upper-level southwesterlies

within broad cyclonic flow could overspread an unstable warm sector

across parts of the central/southern Plains, accompanied by some

severe thunderstorm threat on both Wednesday and Thursday.



...D7/Friday into D8/Saturday - Parts of the southern Plains...

While predictability wanes into next weekend, there is a general

tendency in extended-range guidance toward moving a cold front

southward into the southern Plains and Southeast. While this may

tend to reduce severe potential over most of the CONUS, rich

low-level moisture could linger as the front eventually stalls over

the southern Plains, with some opportunity for stronger storm

development due to persistent upper-level troughing over the

Southwest.



..Dean.. 04/27/2024