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ACUS02 KWNS 271732

SWODY2

SPC AC 271730



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024



Valid 281200Z - 291200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are possible from east Texas into parts of the

upper Mississippi Valley Sunday. Damaging winds, hail, and a few

tornadoes, will all be possible.



...Summary...

A broad, negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to move east

northeastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS

Valley and the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. An attendant

surface low will lift northeast into IA with a dryline trailing

south through eastern NE/KS into central OK. This will serve as a

focus for renewed convective development behind one or more

complicating clusters of ongoing morning storms. Hail, damaging

winds and a few tornadoes are possible.



...East TX into the upper MS Valley...

With broad ascent occurring over an expansive warm sector and mid to

upper 60s F surface dewpoints, one or more clusters of strong to

severe storms are expected to be ongoing early in the period over

the Mississippi Valley into eastern OK/KS and northeast TX. As these

storms continue to move eastward most model guidance shows a general

decrease in severe coverage through the morning hours. However, a

few solutions suggest a line of storms may persist for several hours

with a severe risk across portions of northern AR and southern MO.

With deep meridional shear profiles and limited buoyancy, bands or

clusters of storms capable of isolated damaging winds appear to be

the most likely threat. 



Additional redevelopment of more isolated storms is possible ahead

of the dryline across parts of eastern NE/KS, northwest MO and

southern IA closer to the surface low. A few supercells could evolve

with a risk for all hazards. However, confidence in storm evolution

is low with the potential for widespread cloud cover and convection

limiting the extent of the warm sector.



Farther south into northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR,

redevelopment behind the initial line appears possible from early to

mid afternoon. As the main trough lifts away to the northeast,

low-level warm advection should remain fairly strong and support

weak ascent over much of the warm sector and along the dryline. A

deep and very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F

dewpoints will support a broad area of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE.

However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest and in

combination with broad/weak ascent and mostly meridional shear

profiles, storms may slowly evolve into clusters and line segments.

Still, strong low-level shear could support storm-scale rotation

with the more semi-discrete convection. Large hail, and a few

tornadoes are possible before storms grow upscale into one or more

linear clusters later in the afternoon into the evening. Damaging

winds and line embedded tornadoes will remain possible as the linear

clusters move eastward into the MS Valley in the evening and through

the overnight hours.



...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic...

A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening

from the Great Lakes into northern OH/PA, along the warm front.

Clouds and elevated morning storms are expected to linger through

the day. Instability appears too weak to support an organized severe

threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with a

few stronger storms.



..Lyons.. 04/27/2024



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