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ACUS02 KWNS 280559

SWODY2

SPC AC 280557



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024



Valid 291200Z - 301200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF

CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday

from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi

Valley.



...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough near the upper Great Lakes region at the start of

the period is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on

Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to

move across the southern Plains. Across the West, a shortwave trough

and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest

toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. 



...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley...

A storm cluster will likely be ongoing somewhere near or east of the

ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet

and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. Depending on the

timing of the cluster, some downstream diurnal destabilization could

support a threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a

tornado into the lower MS Valley region. The threat should begin to

wane by evening as instability weakens with time and eastward

extent. 



...Parts of the southern Plains...

A nebulous but nonzero severe threat appears evident over parts of

Texas on Monday. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of

this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in

moderate to locally strong destabilization across parts of south and

perhaps central TX, and isolated storm development will be possible

as CINH weakens. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some

storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat

for hail and isolated severe gusts. A broad but uncertain Marginal

Risk has been maintained for this regime. 



There is some signal in guidance for isolated storm development near

the northwest fringe of returning low-level moisture into northwest

OK and southern KS, even though this region will be in the immediate

wake of the departing shortwave trough. Given the uncertainty

regarding both magnitude and northward extent of more favorable

low-level moisture, probabilities have not been introduced in this

area, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within this

regime. 



...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes

region...

A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH

Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach

parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate

deep-layer flow will persist along/ahead of the front,

destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness

and weakening midlevel lapse rates. A strong storm or two cannot be

ruled out along/ahead of the front, but confidence regarding the

development of adequate instability remains too low to include

probabilities.



..Dean.. 04/28/2024



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